Last week was a brutal one for crypto markets, with losses extending into the weekend.
A raft of employment data out of the US didn’t prevent stock markets from falling either, as ‘Slumptember’ lives up to its name. This week will be heavy on inflation data with additional reports on jobless claims.
“This is the final week of inflation data before the long-anticipated September Fed meeting,” noted the Kobeissi Letter.
Economic Events Sept. 9-13
Wednesday will see August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is one of two key inflation indicators used by the central bank. The data reflects price trends in the economy and shapes consumer spending so it is closely watched by Fed policymakers as it will impact rate decisions.
The August Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be released on Thursday, which reflects input prices for producers and manufacturers. It is also a pre-indicator of inflationary pressures as it measures the costs of producing consumer goods, making it a leading indicator for the following month’s CPI report.
Thursday will also see initial jobless claims data, which provides a broader picture of the labor market.
Key Events This Week:
1. OPEC Monthly Report – Tuesday
2. August CPI Inflation data – Wednesday
3. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
4. August PPI Inflation data – Thursday
5. Continuing Jobless Claims data – Thursday
6. MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday
This is the…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 8, 2024
September’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Consumer Inflation Expectations preliminary readings are released on Friday. These reports provide the results of a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels and views of long-term inflation. They are also used as a component of the Fed’s Index of Inflation Expectations calculations.
Following the weak economic data last week, the market is assessing the odds of a 25- or 50-basis point rate cut at the September Fed meeting, and the CPI report is likely to play a heavy role in that process.
A weaker-than-expected CPI report could increase the chances of a 50 bps rate cut at the meeting on September 18. The CME Fed Watch tool currently has a 31% chance of a larger rate cut.
Crypto Market Outlook
Theoretically, a larger rate cut would be good for crypto markets, but even that doesn’t appear to be enough to shake off the bearish sentiment at the moment.
Markets returned to levels not seen since the Black Monday Aug. 5 crash, with total capitalization dropping below $2 trillion late last week. It has since recovered to $2.03 trillion but remains at its lowest level since early February.
Bitcoin hit a weekend low of $53,300 but has since recovered to tap $55,000 during the Monday morning Asian trading session. Ethereum fared worse, with a brief dip below $2,200 over the weekend. The asset recovered the $2,300 level but remains weak.
