New polling of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin confirms the NYT/Siena Poll that Donald Trump is losing in the swing states.
The latest polling from the Independent Center of the three “Blue Wall” states found that Kamala Harris now leads Trump 49%-40% in Wisconsin, 45%-41% in Pennsylvania, and 45%-40% in Michigan.
Going below the match up numbers reveals Trump’s problem. Trump’s favorability when combined in the three states is a net (-14). Trump has a favorability rating of 42%, and unfavorable rating of 56%.
Kamala Harris has a net (0) favorability rating with split of 49%-49%.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump’s favorable/unfavorable rating is an identical 42%-56%. In Pennsylvania, Trump is 43%-55%.
Harris has a favorable rating of 49%-49% in Michigan and Wisconsin and a net (-1) in Pennsylvania (48%-49%).
The character questions in the three states were very revealing. Harris led Trump 40%-36% on which candidate you’d rather have a beer with. Voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania definitely would not trust Trump to babysit their kids, as Harris led Trump 45%-20% on the question of which candidate would trust to babysit their children.
The Democratic labeling of Trump as weird has worked, as voters in the three states said that Trump is weirder than Harris by a margin of 45%-32%.
Usually, these sorts of character questions don’t mean much, but when they are combined with Trump’s high unfavorable ratings, it suggests that voters don’t like or trust Trump.
The problem for Democrats never was their policies. The problem was that voters were not excited for a Biden and Trump rematch. Now that Democrats have provided voters with a fresher, younger, very joyous candidate, voters have responded.
Republicans can’t fix their problem because the problem is Donald Trump. If Harris keeps her numbers where they currently are, Trump will face a catastrophe in the swing states because voters don’t like or want to vote for Donald Trump.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
